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市场的波动,生命的律动

字数统计: 3.3k阅读时长: 14 min
2019/08/13 Share

这世界上一定有人在做你想做的事业,过你想过的生活,和你想认识的人交朋友。如果想迅速提高自己在某个领域的能力,第一件事就是要找到这个领域的No.1。你要做的不是从零开始“发明轱辘”,而是找到已经做成的人,一套已被证实可行的系统,然后开始执行。

谈及做投资,巴菲特是大部分读者心目中的No.1,我也是其中的一位,虽然非常想具体了解巴菲特及其幕后智囊团的投资理念,但是却苦于没有途径。而十一年前,一位对投资感到迷惘但是勇敢的年轻人给巴菲特写了封信,想去了解伯克希尔的员工和合作伙伴,于是从2008年到2010年,他在美国各地拜访了伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的许多子公司首席执行官,并出版了《巴菲特的幕后智囊团》一书。

他,就是Chartwell Capital的创始人Ronald Chan,也是我们Investor Z Club香港修行之旅的第一站。

Part 1 对投资的热情是一切的开始

谈及投资生涯的开端,Ronald在NYU读的是会计与金融,那是一个互联网刚开始普及的年代,只要用100美元就可以开一个交易账户进行股票交易。在这样的时代背景下,Ronald人生第一次参与进投资中,当时他的投资意向有Compaq Computer,Apple,Oracle,最后他在24美元左右购买了Compaq Computer,经过一段时间,他在这只股票上赚到了4美元,但是同期的另外两只股票表现更为惊人,均从24美元左右都涨到了100美元以上。

这种场景想必大家并不陌生,当初没有买下的股票,之后却跑出了令人吃惊的表现。这第一场投资后,虽然投资回报并不高,但是Ronald对投资感到了前所未有的激情。每一个不开盘的周六周日对Ronald都是痛苦的煎熬,而每一个股价波动的工作日,Ronald才能深切感受到生命的律动,股票市场这件变幻莫测的事情让Ronald深深的着迷了。

正如物理学家、天文学家对自然现象的痴迷与研究之后,才发现了更多的自然规律诸如量子理论和哈勃定律,我相信金融市场的背后也有自己的规律,对投资的热情是发现这些背后隐藏规律的驱动力。

Part 2 投资既是艺术也是科学,沉淀自己的投资风格

就像人从出生到青年再到成年,每个人都会经历不同的事情,遇到不同的人,这些人和事会塑造我们的性格、与他人交谈的风格等等。在投资中,每个人都会选择一项入门时使用的方法,可能是偏技术分析的MA移动均线策略,也可能是通过DCF模型来计算当前股价是否便宜,之后他们会在市场的”馈赠“或者”毒打”中,继续坚持现在的策略或者寻求对投资方式的改变。

在经历多年的投资后,Ronald的投资风格也发生了巨大的变化。上面提到Ronald在刚开始投资时,交易日的分分钟都会关注股票价格的波动,并作出交易决定,这使得他感到自己生命的律动,而现在他虽然每天也会关注市场的变化,但是并不会作出频繁的交易,这是他投资风格转变中的一个小细节。

在股票市场上”搏斗“时,相信很多人会将自己的收益水平拿来与指数的表现作比较,有趣的是,Ronald经历过一段时期,父亲建议他“forget how to get rich but learn how to stay rich”,只要收益的水平超过资金的利息,大约是5%~7%,那么也是不小的胜利。

一个比较关键的转折点是Ronald感受到直接从技术指标做分析做交易并不是他的特长,如果不结合基本面的分析也是无法持续的,因此他开始阅读这方面的一些经典的书籍,比如一些与彼得·林奇有关的。

虽然往基本面分析进行转型,但是Ronald在实战中依然会使用技术指标进行分析或画图,因为首先第一点,这非常符合人的天性,的确通过图,我们能更好的看出这个企业的发展脉络,在什么时间点经历了什么巨大的挫折或胜利都可以非常直观的看出。

第二点,Ronald提到使用基本面分析会帮助你找到适合做投资的质地优良的股票,但是当找到这只股票后,并不一定是合适的买入时机,所以你需要结合技术指标分析判断当前是不是一个比较好的价位来买入,因此将基本面与技术分析相结合,发挥出两者各自的优势是非常关键的,只通过基本面进行分析,很可能会在一个错误的价格买入股票。

从我做量化投资的一些角度看,资本市场上有很多人是相信技术指标,并根据技术指标进行投资的,对某一技术指标的共识,能形成非常可怕的力量来影响若干只股票价格的波动。一些量化投资策略,我的理解是去通过算法来学习整个市场内所有投资者的认知共识的分布情况,比如对某一技术指标的追随者,在一段时间长度内的资金力量几何,当之后价格波动当某一价位时来根据此前建立的模型判断出整个市场的走向。

关于先做充分的调研后再进行投资,还是先做完投资后再进行深入的调研,这其实也是两个迥异的投资风格。Charles Merrill选择了前者,George Soros选择了后者,其实两者之间并没有特别的也说不出孰优孰劣,Ronald认为在投资前做太多的研究会让你变得迟疑不决,比如当你列举出这家公司十个优点和十个缺点,你便会迷惘不知该如何进行决策,因此你需要对商业和市场有一些信仰,如果你是先做投资后再继续深入研究,那么你真的需要非常多的经验来在那个合适的时机来临时做出迅速的判断,比如当腾讯跌去60%的股价时,你完全可能会根据本能买入,即时在投资决策做出后,你发现自己做出了十分严重错误的决定,你也可以在接下来的时间立刻卖出止损。

Ronald谈到投资既是艺术,也是科学,其中艺术的那块是感性投资,而科学的那块是出于分析的理性投资。科学的方法能帮助你挑选出合适的股票,但是如何构建好每个人的资产组合,如何对每只股票分配好权重,那么这就是一件非常艺术的事情。

Part 3 一个投资点子的诞生

真正落实到要买什么样的股票时,很多人面对A股的三千多只股票会茫然,好多公司其实不了解,可能名字都没听过。那么如何产生一个有意向的投资标的呢?其实我们可以多从生活中多留意,多观察。

Ronald给我们分享了一个十分有趣的故事,当他第一次成为父亲时,他了解到新生儿的脐带血可以储存起来供孩子未来紧急所需,于是他开始研究这一领域的公司,并在这一领域的研究中选择出了他认为优秀的公司进行投资,最终从2.7刀买入的股价涨到了6刀多的水平,获得了丰厚的资本回报。

Part 4 总结

与创业一样,投资也需要找到最适合自己的战场,用最适合自己的武器,基本面分析也好,技术指标也好,还是用量化的方法将两者相结合,我们会在长期的投资与反思中形成自己独特的投资风格与框架,留意生活中的细节是寻找投资点子的好方法,爱生活,爱投资,让这种共振的感觉成为我的一种本能与天性。

最后感谢我们Investor Z Club能为我们筹划这么棒的一次香港修炼之旅。

Part 5 访谈录

    1. When did you decide to become an investor?

I was a high school student in America at the time. My sister took me to New York City on holiday and I shared a room with a friend of hers who studied finance at New York University. One morning he turned on CNBC and started watching a program that had lots of symbols and numbers scrolling along the bottom of the screen. I asked him what the symbols meant and he told me that they werestock quotes and one could make money by trading stock. That was the most important discovery of my life and from then on I wanted to learn as much as I could about the stock market.

As I entered university, my father encouraged me to study accounting because it is the backbone of every business. He said that if I wanted to become a good investor, understanding financial statements would becritical, so I chose accounting and finance when I attended NYU.

In the 1990s, online trading became popular. My father gave me $2,500 dollars to open an online brokerage, and my investment career officially began. I started trading as the Internet bubble was just beginning, and everything was on the rise. I asked the friend who had introduced me to the stock market what I should buy, and he told me to consider Compaq, Apple, and Oracle. I picked Compaq because I had a Compaq computer right in front of me, and at the time Apple wasn’t thatpopular and I had no idea what Oracle did. In the end, both Oracle and Apple went up a lot, but Compaq traded sideways. It was a terrible experience for me as a first-time investor. However, when the Internet bubble burst, both Oracle and Apple dropped in value, and Compaq was boughtby Hewlett Packard, so I still made money from that investment.

    1. When did you find your investment style?

When I bought Compaq stock, I was relying on someone else’s advice. My entry point was purely based on technical analysis. So at the beginning of my investment career I was more of a chartist than a value investor. I read technical trading books by Martin Pring, Alexander Elder and Jack Schwager. I focused on MACD, RSI, Bollinger band, Fibonacci numbers and even point and figure graphs. However, my style changed when I found out about Warren Buffett and the merits of fundamental analysis.

This shift began when my father gave me a lot ofHSBC shares, and he asked me to pledge all these shares at the bank and take out a loan. He told me that if I could beat the borrowing cost by intelligently investing/trading in the market, then I could reach financial freedom all by myself.

I was very excited by this idea at first, so I started trading the market aggressively, forever glued to my computer to watch stock quotes. But somehow my trading strategies kept losing, and I was devasted because I owed the bank a lot of money.

Being kind-hearted and forgiving, my father didn’t yell at me. Instead, he replenished my lost capital, told me not to be aggressive in the market and to focus on the long term. Most importantly, he told me to focus on preserving and growing capital to stay rich rather than to get rich. That was a big lesson learned, and fortunately I read about Warren Buffett and value investing at the same time. I deeply embraced this style of investing and have maintained that stance ever since.

    1. How much do we need to know before investing in a stock?

Charles Merrill from Merrill Lynch said “investigate, then invest.” George Soros said “invest, then investigate.” After becoming a value investor, I followed the Merrill approach at first because it made sense and is certainly prudent, so I did a lot of analysis before I pulled the trigger. But no decision can be 100 percent certain, and there can be times when you fall into the analysis paralysistrap. When to stop analyzing something and start making up your mind is an important aspect ofinvesting.

As I have researched many sectors and stocks over the years, I have gained a deeper understanding of their valuation and trading patterns, so I now set price alerts or limit prices on some of these stocks. To an extent, I have adopted the “invest, then investigate” approach. This doesn’t mean that I invest blindly, but perhaps my experience has given me a good ability to gauge stock prices, so I am now both proactive and reactive in the investment process.

    1. What do you think of AI in investing?

I think AI will certainly replace conventional investment analysis. However, I like to say that analysts predict the future but entrepreneurs create the future. It is inevitable that machine learning will help predict the future, but it cannot create the future for us. In the end, it’s still the human and entrepreneurial spirit that drives the world forward. Learning how to be a good judge of character and building one’s human network are important ingredients in investing. This is something AI can never replace.

    1. Can you tell us about how you generate investment ideas?

Ideas come from everywhere. You just need to be observant in life. For example, when my first daughter was born my wife said we need to store her cord blood because it was rich in stem cells and could cure some blood-related diseases in the future. We paid USD4,000 for this service, which was like a form of medical insurance for us. I became intrigued by this cord blood business and found that there were several listed companies in this space, and after further research I invested in one of them. A few years later, my return was over 100 percent, which was pretty good.

相关资料

CATALOG
  1. 1. Part 1 对投资的热情是一切的开始
  2. 2. Part 2 投资既是艺术也是科学,沉淀自己的投资风格
  3. 3. Part 3 一个投资点子的诞生
  4. 4. Part 4 总结
  5. 5. Part 5 访谈录
  6. 6. 相关资料